The Cost of an Unreliable Plan

My Father's Dragon

This flow traces the hazards built into Elmer’s plan and shows how each setback forces him to adapt without abandoning the rescue.

increasing

Bearing strength in each event

decreasing

A Secret Departure A Secret Departure from "My Father's Dragon". Risk Chosen Early Concealment Elmer sneaks aboard without permission and hides among the cargo. Discovery could send him home before he begins the rescue.

A Secret Departure from "My Father's Dragon". Risk Chosen Early Concealment Elmer sneaks aboard without permission and hides among the cargo. Discovery could send him home before he begins the rescue.

Risk Chosen Early Concealment Elmer sneaks aboard without permission and hides among the cargo. Discovery could send him home before he begins the rescue. A fragile plan The secrecy enables the journey but leaves Elmer without adult help. Its success depends on improvisation at every later stage.

The Strange Grain Bag The Strange Grain Bag from "My Father's Dragon". Nearly Discovered A close call Sailors notice that Elmer’s grain bag looks lumpy. Their inspection risks revealing the boy inside.

The Strange Grain Bag from "My Father's Dragon". Nearly Discovered A close call Sailors notice that Elmer’s grain bag looks lumpy. Their inspection risks revealing the boy inside.

Nearly Discovered A close call Sailors notice that Elmer’s grain bag looks lumpy. Their inspection risks revealing the boy inside. Improvised recovery A mistaken guess about dried corn saves him, but the passage is accidental rather than secure. Elmer must continue knowing that his disguise was fragile.

The Wrong Jungle Course The Wrong Jungle Course from "My Father's Dragon". Navigation Fails The misdirection Elmer’s compass course takes him away from the river because it bends sharply.

The Wrong Jungle Course from "My Father's Dragon". Navigation Fails The misdirection Elmer’s compass course takes him away from the river because it bends sharply.

Navigation Fails The misdirection Elmer’s compass course takes him away from the river because it bends sharply. Dense foliage and swamp mud add to the difficulty. A worsening position A sensible method fails against unfamiliar terrain. Elmer’s detour brings him into encounters with dangerous animals before he reaches Baby Dragon.

The Pursuers Gather The Pursuers Gather from "My Father's Dragon". Local Dangers Combine Suspicion escalates Wild Boars interpret the animals’ distractions as evidence of invasion and gather a crowd to defend Baby Dragon’s…

The Pursuers Gather from "My Father's Dragon". Local Dangers Combine Suspicion escalates Wild Boars interpret the animals’ distractions as evidence of invasion and gather a crowd to defend Baby Dragon’s…

Local Dangers Combine Suspicion escalates Wild Boars interpret the animals’ distractions as evidence of invasion and gather a crowd to defend Baby Dragon’s captivity. The rescue endangered Each individual escape has left a clue that strengthens the larger pursuit. Elmer’s immediate survival has produced a new collective threat.

The Unplanned Escape Route The Unplanned Escape Route from "My Father's Dragon". Setback Becomes Advantage The bridge changes The Crocodiles abandon their place as a stable crossing and swim downstream with the pursuers aboard.

The Unplanned Escape Route from "My Father's Dragon". Setback Becomes Advantage The bridge changes The Crocodiles abandon their place as a stable crossing and swim downstream with the pursuers aboard.

Setback Becomes Advantage The bridge changes The Crocodiles abandon their place as a stable crossing and swim downstream with the pursuers aboard. Elmer has not controlled the turn, but it buys time. Resolution through adaptation The plan succeeds because Elmer can use an unintended event. His journey rewards flexible attention rather than perfect prediction.

the night Elmer boards the ship

during the unloading at Cranberry

after Elmer tries to follow the river

after the animal encounters on the trail

during the final rush across the river